Betable Blog

Archive for the ‘Strategy’ Category

Hi all, and welcome to the Betable blog.  My name is Galen Hall and I will be posting intermittently as Betable’s resident “expert gambler.” When I’m not writing about Betable, I spend my time on betting analysis for Dr. Bob Sports and to play poker professionally.

Over the coming weeks and months, I’ll be providing some tips and strategy for betting, as well as posting analysis of market movements and developments in the betting world.  To get you started, I have already written a long series of articles on more advanced topics in sports betting.  I also recently had an article published on The Huffington Post in which I discussed how to use some simple game theory to maximize your win probability in a March Madness pool.

I’m excited to be writing about Betable because I’m not quite sure how the site will evolve. My experiences with betting revolve around building extremely complex mathematical models to simulate the outcomes of  public events with greater accuracy than the models used by the odds makers in Vegas.  The private-betting sector that Betable is creating from scratch is very new, and I’m eager to see how it develops.

As of today, Las Vegas only creates lines for events that have huge audiences, and as you can learn from my Bob articles, it’s almost impossible for a casual fan to develop enough of an information advantage for them to bet profitably against the house in the long term.  However, Betable will enable peer-to-peer bets, and will allow small communities to create action on anything under the sun, and thus enable the proliferation of hundreds of very specialized betting experts.

I’m personally expecting that Betable eventually becomes an outlet for EV/+EG hedges. These hedges might be from poker players who make it deep in tournaments, insurance adjusters who are wary of a storm causing enormous amounts of damage, a politician who is nervous about the amount of money his opponent might raise, or an infinite number of other situations which I haven’t even conceived of.

For example, if I were lucky enough to make the Final Table of the World Series of Poker this summer, Betable would allow me to create a huge public bet where I could bet against myself as a hedge.  The WSOP pays out around $1 million USD to the 9th place finisher and around $9m USD to the winner, and with very short stacks there’s a reasonable amount of luck involved. Today, I would have to let that $8 million difference ride on a coin flip here and a 80/20 there, but in the future I might be able to give favorable odds to hundreds or thousands of Betable users in order to mitigate some of the variance on my part.

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